By Michael D. Shear and Jon Cohen
 Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, August 4, 2008; Page A01

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John
McCain among the nation's low-wage workers, but many are unconvinced that
either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the
ailing economy or improving the health-care system, according to a new
national poll.

Obama's advantage is attributable largely to overwhelming support from two
traditional Democratic constituencies: African Americans and Hispanics. But
even among white workers -- a group of voters that has been targeted by both
parties as a key to victory in November -- Obama leads McCain by 10
percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the
more empathetic candidate.

Still, one in six of the white workers polled remains uncommitted to either
candidate. And a majority of those polled, both white and minority, are
ambivalent about the impact of the election, saying that no matter who wins,
their personal finances are unlikely to change.

"It's not my main concern in life," said Mary Lee, 50, a factory worker in
rural Kentucky. "I know how politics is. I really don't think it's going to
matter either way."

More than disaffection drives these workers, according to the new national
poll by the Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and
Harvard University.

Their politics are shaped partly by their lot in the current economy: These
voters are among the most severely hurt by rising prices, and many are
insecure about their finances and lack jobs with basic benefits.
Nevertheless, many are optimistic about the future even as they express deep
suspicion about government.

The new poll included interviews with 1,350 randomly selected workers 18 to
64 years old who put in at least 30 hours a week but earned $27,000 or less
last year. As a group, they are somewhat less likely to be Republicans than
all adults under age 65 and are also less likely to be registered to vote.
As many call themselves conservatives as liberal, and nearly four in 10 said
their views on most political matters are "moderate."

The group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of U.S. adults, gives the
Democrat the nod both as the more empathetic candidate and as the one who
more closely shares their values. And while many express no opinion about
who would do more to improve the economy or health care -- or the voters'
finances -- Obama has the clear edge among those who picked a favorite on
these core issues.

Obama's standing with the white workers runs counter to an impression,
dating from the primary season, that he struggles to attract support from
that group. McCain advisers have said for months that they think the
Republican can win a significant share of those voters because of Obama's
performance in the spring.

The survey suggests it will be difficult, but not impossible, for McCain to
increase his appeal. Whereas Obama underperforms congressional Democrats by
six points among low-wage whites -- 53 percent would prefer that the party
control Congress -- McCain has a seven-point edge over congressional
Republicans.

Sixteen percent of the white workers polled expressed either no opinion
about the presidential race or indicated they would support no one, someone
else or just plain not vote.

Ruth Haskins, 64, the city clerk of Billings, Mo., for one, said she is
"scared about the younger generation running the country" and is solidly "on
the fence" about the election.

In May, as the race between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton raged on,
McCain adviser Charlie Black told reporters that the campaign would reach
out to working-class white voters, in part because of Obama's difficulties
wresting such voters from the Clinton camp.

In an interview last week, Black said the campaign still plans to target
working-class white voters, particularly by appealing to them on economic
and energy issues. Jobs and gasoline prices are "very big to people in that
income range," Black said.

Nearly two-thirds of the white workers surveyed want the government to make
lower gas prices a "top priority," something McCain pitched earlier this
year in advocating for a suspension of the federal gas tax. One respondent
was particularly clear on this point: "I'll vote for whoever can bring the
price of gas down," said Brian Levesque, 25, a social worker from Lansdale,
Pa.

But slightly more, seven in 10, say government should focus on helping
people like them find more affordable health insurance, a core component of
Obama's campaign. Fewer, just over four in 10, favor placing a top priority
on tax cuts or the creation of new jobs through an expansion of public works
projects.

Overall, the survey suggests that Obama's economic appeals have the most
resonance with white workers who are under the greatest financial stress.
Obama has a lead of 19 percentage points among those white workers who feel
"very insecure" financially; that is more than double his advantage among
those in the group who feel better off.

McCain leads among those who say they have advanced over the past seven
years, but it is a much smaller group -- only 17 percent of low-wage white
workers. Obama has the edge among those who say they have stayed about even
over that time period.

An issue of acute importance to low-wage workers -- the impact of illegal
immigration -- is one that divides workers in the poll about evenly:
Forty-nine percent said illegal immigrants take jobs from legal residents,
and 47 percent said they do not.

Nearly six in 10 white and black workers said they think undocumented
workers take jobs away from those here legally; seven in 10 Hispanics
disagreed. (Nearly half of the Hispanic workers interviewed in this poll are
not U.S. citizens.)

International trade -- and its impact on increasingly scarce jobs -- is
another issue that may prove a flash point for workers in the fall campaign.

Half of those polled said growth in trade has made things worse for the
country; far fewer, only about two in 10, said it has had a net benefit, and
a similar percentage said they are unsure. But a majority also said trade
has not changed their lives one way or the other.

As is the case with immigration, majorities of white and black workers said
trade has done more harm than good, while most Hispanics disagreed.

"One thing I keep seeing is a lack of wherewithal to tackle the tough issues
like health care, illegal immigration," said Stephanie Dayton, 51, a
bookkeeper in Tucson. "It's sort of like overhauling the tax code. If there
was an easy way to tackle it without conflict, they would have done it
already. At some point it takes some backbone to get it done. Get some
backbone and decide what you stand for."

McCain's biggest challenge is among minority workers.

Among the African Americans polled, 92 percent chose Obama as the candidate
more concerned with their problems; not a single black respondent said so
about McCain, although 1 percent said "both do." Hispanics also sided with
Obama on that question, favoring him by more than 40 percentage points as
the more empathetic candidate.

The poll was conducted by conventional and cellular telephone June 18 to
July 7, among a random national sample of low-wage workers. Interviews were
conducted in English and Spanish. The results have a margin of sampling
error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta and assistant polling analyst Kyle Dropp
contributed to this report.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/08/03/ST20080...
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